Are the Streaming Wars Over?
WGA Strike Continues / Mel Gibson sets next project at LIONSGATE / FAST X looking at huge debut
Good morning! This is Samuel Morales with this week’s Hollywood and media news to know on WEDNESDAY May 17, 2023.
In a bold prediction by Alex Sherman at CNBC, he claims that “the streaming wars are over” and that studios (correction: the corporations that run them) will be looking elsewhere in the coming years for new sources of growth revenue. Here’s a brief history of major moments in the so-called “Streaming Wars”:
- 2007: Netflix announces that it will launch streaming video
- 2008: Hulu launches to directly compete with Netflix
- 2009: Netflix launches Originals
- 2013: Netflix launches House of Cards, its first original content. Video retail store Blockbuster also closes down this year.
- 2016: CBS: All Access, initially launched to focus on the live streaming of its programming from local affiliates, moves into original programming with the first new Star Trek show in almost fifteen years.
- 2018: AT&T acquires Warner Bros. and begins developing a streaming service to compete with Netflix.
- 2019: Disney CEO Bob Iger acquires 21st Century Fox, giving it a 60% majority stake in Hulu. Later that year, Disney launches “Disney+”. Apple launches Apple TV+.
- 2020: HBO Max (Warner Bros) and Peacock (Comcast/Universal) are launched. Under AT&T at the time, Warner Bros makes the controversial move to launch all of its theatrical films onto the streaming service at the same time as their theatrical releases, prompting filmmakers such as Christopher Nolan to move away from the company.
- 2021: AT&T relinquishes control of Warner Bros and the latter studio merges with Discovery. Discovery CEO David Zaslav becomes CEO of the new merged company.
- 2022: David Zaslav announces a drastic move away from producing original content for HBO Max (renaming it “Max”) and announces a renewed focus on theatrical entertainment, citing that most of the money the company had been losing had been on streaming. Both Netflix and Disney report major losses and launch ad-supported tiers to their respective streaming services.
- 2023: After a surprise return to the company in the previous year, Bob Iger puts into effect major downsizing at Disney+ and announces streaming price hikes, and it becomes clear why after reports of the loss of 4 million subscribers in the first three months of the year alone. Netflix announces they reportedly aim to cut $300M by the end of the year.
Streaming has been good for binge-watching and for unprecedented access to movies and television shows, but it has become clear in the post-pandemic world that the business model around streaming is inherently unstable. The theatrical model, as proven by Tom Cruise, is still the dominant form of shared pop culture entertainment in the world and despite COVID’s best efforts will not be going away for a while.
So definitely expect streaming costs to get higher and original content output from your favorite services to get lower in the next few years. (and, as written in this fantastic article featured in friend of the Substack “The Broken Binnacle,” maybe consider investing in physical media instead?)
PLUS: Since its start 2 weeks ago, the WGA strike has already caused several production shutdowns on major shows like Stranger Things, Cobra Kai and Severance, while shows like Rings of Power and Andor are being forced to continue production without the participation of their striking showrunners. YouTuber Drew Gooden has a good (and entertaining) breakdown of the proceedings below:
ALSO: Mel Gibson is back…but not with the anticipated Passion sequel just yet. His first return to the director’s chair since 2016’s Hacksaw Ridge, Flight Risk starring his Father Stu co-star and fellow Catholic Mark Wahlberg, will be distributed by Lionsgate, who is also featuring Gibson in their John Wick spinoff series The Continental. Gotta pay those bills if you’re self-financing the next major Biblical epic.
BOX OFFICE REPORT
Despite some less-than-enthusiastic early reviews, Fast X is still tracking to open with a tremendous $300M opening. That’s the power of family.
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 endures a pretty standard 47.6% drop in ticket sales in its second week; this is actually pretty good compared to Thor: Love and Thunder and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which had drops of around 68-69%. Don’t expect to see such healthy numbers with the upcoming The Marvels in the fall.
All eyes are on Lucasfilm with the upcoming premiere of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny at the Cannes Film Festival. With a rumored budget of $300 million (possibly due to the de-aging effects on Mr. Ford for flashback sequences) it’ll take a genuine critical hit to get the positive word-of-mouth going to ensure this film makes a profit.
See you next week!
- Sam